1Q 2010: GLOBAL MARKET UP +11.2%
By Generation Research, 26 April 2010
Following gains in January (+6.6%), February (+10.7%) and March (+16.6%), so far this year the global duty free and travel retail market has advanced + 11.2% as compared to the same period in 2009.
“As we all remember, 1Q 2009 was a very difficult period with sales suffering dramatically the world over”, says Yngve Bia, President Generation Research. “Albeit from a low base, 1Q 2010 added an encouraging nearly 1 billion worth of sales. Highlights are of course the significant growth numbers in sales recorded in the Middle East as well as for Luxury Goods”.
Earlier this year Ambroise Fondeur, Deputy CEO Commercial and Marketing Aelia, commented: "The major threat to the business this year again is the evolution of the air traffic. Will it recover and at what pace? There is a risk that the tourist traffic softens even further as the effect of the economic crisis is felt by a wider number of persons. The start of the year is encouraging and slightly stronger than what we expected, however."
Similar thoughts and experiences related to early 2010 are shared at Frankfurt. Christian Sültemeyer, Senior Key Account Manager and Manager Category Management Duty Free, Fraport AG, said: "In Frankfurt we noted positively that the most important international traffic was coming back much quicker than domestic and European traffic – that gave us a boost. Also a tremendously quick recovering cargo-business is always the best sign that economies around the globe are back to growth and air-cargo is currently outperforming everything else. So this should be taken as a positive early indicator for travel retail in general."
Despite the double-digit growth in business in 1Q 2010, most traders remain largely unexcited about the developments. A common view held among retailers and suppliers is that passenger numbers improved slightly, but travellers were not returning to their normal spending patterns as before.
"Up until the end of March and just about up to mid-April we have seen an accelerating growth in the business as compared to the same months in 2009, says Yngve Bia. "Albeit still at a relatively low level, sentiments among traders have grown steadily. Recent developments as regards the volcanic ash crisis that started mid-April may change this very quickly, however".
Retailers and suppliers alike in Europe and elsewhere follow and monitor the developments of this new and potentially very major crisis closely, ready to implement emergency plans if necessary and especially if the closure of European air space is prolonged. "Short is affordable. Long is killing. Today we have an extraordinary meeting with a group of retail operators", says Jacques Parson, Director Kappé Schiphol.
About the Generation World Index:
The Generation World Index aims to provide an overall, instant and better understanding and interpretation of duty free and travel retail market conditions and developments at any one moment in time during a calendar year. The GWI is an annual moving index starting in January and ending in December each year. The index is updated every month and shows the evolution (percentage change) of monthly-accumulated sales year-on-year.
For easy reference the Generation World Index is given as a percentage number.
The Generation World Index is a weighted index including the following 11 x components / indices produced by Generation:
The statistical content above is as up-to-date as its availability and compilation allowed at the time of publishing. All data are subject to revision in subsequent articles and charts as additional source material becomes available.
|